Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 18.418218 22.282495 26.576025 31.674723 37.537743 44.041511 51.773595
2025-02-16 12.809163 17.829511 24.028783 32.131088 42.315104 54.559936 70.250765
2025-02-23 9.491101 14.809240 21.950326 31.990393 45.460837 62.608293 85.743115
2025-03-02 7.159776 12.396340 19.972815 31.316203 47.388011 68.819637 98.944633
2025-03-09 5.668999 10.795435 18.725677 31.266323 49.875288 75.665345 113.148166
2025-03-16 4.193222 8.844040 16.562538 29.470186 49.528267 78.395111 121.720984
2025-03-23 3.586083 8.213860 16.333639 30.511095 53.324253 87.089048 138.974597
2025-03-30 2.868971 7.201359 15.277832 30.042480 54.682041 92.217103 151.295582
2025-04-06 2.563331 6.923349 15.447930 31.592518 59.288162 102.397364 171.461992
2025-04-13 1.880609 5.662198 13.585760 29.365062 57.496426 102.602353 176.631863
2025-04-20 1.611327 5.263130 13.313602 29.934101 60.380633 110.217037 193.381914
2025-04-27 1.406115 4.964207 13.190878 30.748327 63.713992 118.684229 211.786231
2025-05-04 1.179320 4.577843 12.896545 31.355765 67.017544 127.760099 232.385302
2025-05-11 0.985988 4.225235 12.628634 32.015746 70.536033 137.517006 254.776161
2025-05-18 0.786555 3.770454 12.025637 31.890421 72.558096 144.829272 273.514426
2025-05-25 0.604273 3.282446 11.227370 31.219001 73.442829 150.181408 289.209308
2025-06-01 0.482590 2.948754 10.747006 31.169324 75.502908 157.663468 308.756459
2025-06-08 0.336402 2.418731 9.590496 29.377728 73.872342 158.396830 316.785531
2025-06-15 0.290461 2.308089 9.619869 30.416002 78.134078 170.064580 344.165287
2025-06-22 0.221676 2.032191 9.073921 29.948572 79.166127 175.777001 361.324728
2025-06-29 0.199937 2.000758 9.306284 31.494706 84.639355 190.086382 394.232414
2025-07-06 0.129074 1.597243 8.170082 29.272872 81.643594 188.081703 397.841424
2025-07-13 0.106499 1.494888 8.069467 29.840467 84.931217 198.366847 424.067767